Examining the economic impact of China’s One Child policy

Slim Mezlini is a researcher at Global China Study.

A propaganda painting in Guangdong Province promotes the idea of a nuclear family with a single child.

In July 2021 the Chinese government formally announced the end of its controversial laws limiting the number of children in families after amendments earlier that same year and earlier in 2015. The reversal of this policy likely came as a result of falling birth rates in the country and further proven by recent statistics indicating a net population decline for the first time in 60 years. As China aims to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and maintain its position as a leading economy, many experts argue that the issue of birth rates and population decline may hinder the country’s economic growth in the long term. This paper seeks to examine the economic impact of China’s one-child policy as a major cause for China’s current population decline and determine whether the one-child policy had an overall negative impact on China’s economy or if this challenge can be offset and avoided through policy change alone. Firstly, I will consider the concept of overpopulation in China when the one-child policy was first introduced, and the pressure placed on the Chinese economy at the time. I will then look at the correlation between declining population/low birth rate and economic growth and the extent that the policy caused this issue and draw comparisons between China and Japan surrounding their demographic changes.