Prospects for Turkey's election

Our analysis of the election and the possible impacts on its economy.

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu (right).

Polls are giving Kemal Kilicdaroglu a slight lead against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, nearing 50%. Although the opposition candidate could have larger support than the incumbent, few expect Erdogan to hand over power. An array of tactics could still be used by the incumbent to win the vote or manipulate results. Erdogan has been heading Turkey since 2003, when he first became prime minister. Since 2014, he has held the position of president instead.

As we conclude at Over the Hedge, an election result that transfers stability and reliability to European capitals could boost Turkey’s industrial growth. A strong victory for Erdogan means continuity, which could drag markets towards both directions. Already the Turkish lira has suffered during his 20-year rule. A win by Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, needs to ensure that results will not be contested.