This week - Venezuela updates, Cuba's economy minister, Tunisia opposition arrests, Namibia's president
Week of February 5th, 2024.
US-Venezuela relations at breaking point?
After the election ban on opposition frontrunner Maria Corina Machado, we said that major tensions were unlikely. Since then, however, Washington DC has threatened that it will reimpose sanctions on oil and gas. We only expected that the license on gold would be revoked, which happened on January 29th.
There have been comments by John Kirby saying that unless Machado can run, the US will reimpose oil sanctions. However, it is not so clear from other statements from the State Department and the NSC. It is likely that a substitute candidate, with the backing from Machado, could be allowed to run and thus allow for the flexibilization of sanctions to continue, as Geoff Ramsey from Atlantic Council has said.
Much hinges on the date and conditions of the election. On Monday, most candidates are due to meet with the government to discuss the electoral roadmap. It is likely already done, so we expect an announcement early this week. The most likely scenario is elections in July, but it could be moved forward.
Meanwhile, we are aware that there are secret negotiation meetings between Caracas and Washington DC, involving Jorge Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez. There are also rumours that Gonzalez will be leaving his post at the National Security Council in March.
La DEA
The Associated Press also leaked that the DEA had been illegally spying on top Venezuelan government officials. This news could set the stage for an eventual walking back of DEA bounties on President Maduro and others. This would be possible since it seems that they did not find any evidence, or they have not published it. Removing the bounties would be an important step in normalisation, and give assurances to the Maduro government that he will not be persecuted, at least on this front.
Ministerial changes in Venezuela
On Saturday night, President Maduro announced on social media that there would be a cabinet reshuffle, and started announcing minor changes. A source reported that there would be changes with Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and Oil Minister and PDVSA president Pedro Rafael Tellechea. However, as we go to press, this is yet to be announced.
Cuba's economy minister sacked as deficit grows
Economy minister Alejandro Gil was fired on Friday, alongside two other ministers. The Cuban government is immersed in a controversy over the rise in the price of fuel and public transportation. The hikes were announced between December and early January, but have been postponed due to the backlash. Gasoline prices were due to increase five-fold on February 1st, but the government pushed back implementing them citing a cyberattack.
Central Bank president Joaquin Alonso will take over the Economy Ministry. An interesting appointment is Eduardo Martinez, who headed the state-owned pharmaceutical BioCubaFarma to the Science, Technology and Environment Ministry. Alberto Lopez will take over the Food Industry Ministry.
The Cuban government is trying to tame the growing fiscal deficit during one of its worst-ever economic crises. It is also giving the private sector more space to grow, and thus absorb a reducing state sector. While they started in a very limited form under Raul Castro, Miguel Diaz-Canel is taking a relatively more aggressive course in order to turn around the economy.
While Havana is carrying out economic reforms, a fundamental challenge remains the US blockade, which was reinforced by the Trump administration and left untouched by Biden. Significant measures included limiting remittances inflows, or the designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, and adding restrictions to tourism—including to Europeans. The Helms-Burton Act Title III, which was suspended continuously until Trump’s years, is one of the most harmful for foreign investment. It allows for those who claim to be the legitimate owners of nationalized property to litigate against companies dealing with the Cuban public sector.
Tunisia: Opposition leader receives prison sentence
Rached Ghannouchi, the leader of one of the main opposition parties in Tunisia has been sentenced to three years of imprisonment by a Tunisian court over allegations of him and his party, Ennahda receiving funding from abroad. This comes amidst a growing crackdown by the incumbent President Kais Saied on members of the opposition following an abrupt coup in July 2021, which saw the closing of the parliament and granted executive power to the President. Abir Moussi of the Free Destourian Party and another prominent opposition figure was also arrested in October 2023 and has remained in police custody since then. Various international human rights groups and organisations have criticised President Saied for dismantling the country’s democratic system and leading the return to authoritarianism. Interestingly, the EU and other Western powers have largely been mute towards Saied’s rule, occasionally throwing out mild criticism, but stopping short of any demands.
Tunisia’s democracy had always been unstable from the get-go, with myriads of political crises and a struggling economy. Long hailed as the only success of the Arab Spring, many analysts are sceptical over the possibility of democracy in Tunisia without support from its closest partners in the West and overall disillusionment from citizens on politics.
Namibian President Hage Geingob dies
Namibian President Hage Geingob passed away on Sunday while receiving medical treatment for cancer at a hospital in Windhoek, Namibia at age 82. Vice President Nangolo Mbumba succeeded Geinhob following the announcement, stating that Namibia had lost an icon of liberation and calling for the nation to remain calm while preparations were underway for the government.
Geinhob entered politics as an anti-apartheid activist, joining the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO). He was a known advocate for Africa’s greater involvement and role in world affairs One of his last notable actions as President was his criticism of Germany’s defence of Israel in the ongoing genocide case at the ICJ, reminding Germany that it is guilty of genocide against the Herero Nama people during its colonial rule over Namibia. New presidential elections in Namibia are expected to be held later this year.