6 March 2023 - This Week Over the Hedge
Week of Monday March 6th, 2023.
World Bank elections
The World Bank election is on. The US has nominated Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga. He’s already been sent on campaign to Ivory Coast and Kenya, and he is to follow in Latin America and Europe. The Indian-born businessman has also worked with the Obama administration and Vice-President Kamala Harris.
Since the outset, the World Bank has been dominated by the US. It’s the only country with enough votes to exercise veto power (15%) – and the headquarters remain in Washington DC, a 10-minute walk away from the White House. However, leadership is increasingly becoming contested by China. In 2021, there were accusations that it was embellishing data on China when it was under the leadership of Jim Yong Kim and Kristalina Georgieva.
War in Ukraine
Ukraine may attempt a new southern offensive to break the Russian land bridge to Crimea. The Russian assault on Bakhmut might nonetheless draw in too many resources for that to succeed. This could be troublesome with Ukraine, if it doesn’t have enough time to properly form its army with the newly acquired Leopard II tanks and other weaponry. Military analysts say that this might actually be Putin’s main objective at the current offensive.
Turkey is negotiating to renew the Russia-Ukraine grain deal. The scheme allows for ships to take Ukrainian grains out through the Black Sea. The agreement must be renewed every 120 days. It is of extreme importance given the reliance on imported wheat from the warring countries, especially in Africa and the Middle East. The conflict has already severely impacted food prices in both regions.
Stay alert for our weekly updates on the war, and its relevance for the wider developing world.
Xenophobia and racism in Tunisia
In February 2023 Tunisian President Kais Saied called the expulsion of African migrants in the country citing a conspiracy to “alter the country’s demographic structure”. This declaration has enabled a growing number of attacks targeting not only migrants but black Tunisians as well and has faced open condemnation from human rights organisations and the African Union alike calling the president’s words inflammatory hate speech. This development comes on the backfoot of ongoing economic and political crises that have been plaguing the country since 2011.
Read more in our article.
Violence intensifies in the West Bank
Tensions are rising in the occupied west bank after a series of attacks against Palestinians by Israeli settlers in what experts are now describing as modern-day pogroms which came as a response to previous attacks on Israelis. The recent spike in violence comes two months into Israel’s most right-wing government thus far with many lawmakers openly calling for the expansion of settlements in the west bank and removal of Palestinians despite the move being internationally recognised as illegal under the United Nations.
Settler actions have received praises from members of the Knesset including Ben Gvir who was convicted for supporting the Kach terror group and Bezalel Smotrich who co-founded an NGO focused on undermining Palestinian efforts to remain in the occupied territories. It appears that violence will only intensify so long as politicians continue to endorse settlements in the west bank, pushing away any hopes of diplomatic resolution towards long term peace.
And in our niche FX section
After months of sharp devaluation, the Venezuelan Bolivar is making another stand. At Bs24 = $1, the official exchange rate is unusually above the black-market rate. Another period of monetary stability, after that of 2021 to mid-2022, could mean the Bolivar gets some confidence at last. In 2016-2020, hyperinflation was reaching six digits.
After years of economic collapse, Venezuela seems to be starting off on the path of recovery. In the first three quarters of 2022 Venezuela’s economy even saw 17% growth, in part due to stabilising conditions and rising fossil fuel revenues. Sanctions have eased but are unlikely to end; the White House has just renewed the executive order declaring Venezuela "an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the US".
Stay tuned for our commissioned report on Venezuela’s new economics coming soon (only for paid subscribers).
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