You mention the article from HispanoPost which in turn mentions three unnamed sources.
In all honesty, I do not see as portrayed an exchange in which Maduro releases on or more US prisoners in exchange for the OFAC letting US investors buy Venezuela and PDVSA bonds... I see no incentives for Maduro.
Furthermore recent local events like the resignation of CNE authorities indicate Maduro is stepping away from democracy and planning on becoming another “Fidel Castro”...
As you can appreciate, we say "US government could be in talks" because we have some reports but they are not enough on their own to have certainty. I also personally know that there is a renewed interest in state and PDVSA bonds by funds in London where I work, which indicates there could be something going on behind the scenes.
On the other hand, I do get your point that there are few reasons for Maduro to cozy up to the US now. Instead, he's getting closer to Iran, Russia, et al. However, getting sanctions lifted in exchange for a couple US citizens sounds like a good deal for him.
The article’s title is: Estados Unidos levantaría sanción al trading de los bonos venezolanos a cambio de la liberación de privados de libertad
In English it states that the US would lift “trading” sanctions (not just sanctions). This is very specific and I fail to see how it benefits Maduro. I am keen on hearing your take on the benefits for the regime.
Not being able to trade sanctions in the US (and effectively Europe), means you can't issue new bonds because you will have no buyers. Companies and governments need to issue new bonds all the time, to finance many different projects. Any president, not just Maduro, corrupt or not, populist or not, benefits from being able to issue bonds.
In my view things work differently. We need to distinguish between the 2017 sanctions which had no effect on trading (no new issues with more than 30 & 90s maturities) and 2019 sanctions (US persons cannot buy VENZ & PDVSA bonds).
Even if you lift both of these restrictions Maduro cannot issue any debt (so he gets no benefit) and the private sector cannot in any meaningful manner.
That Venezuela's bonds can be traded, and thus its debt can be restructured, are necessary conditions for new bonds to be issued in the future - though you're right, they're not sufficient.
Now this London service on bonds is also talking about it, and these guys know what they're saying. And so is Reuters. Little by little it's being picked up. The negotiations can fail and there's no lifting of the ban, but it is very likely they are discussing it between Caracas and Washington.
I have known Steve (based in NY) for a very long time. His comment refers to a private meeting that took place (about two months ago) with an official from the State Department who said that the US will revisit the prohibition for US Persons to buy VENZ and PDVSA debt as there was no correlation between the restriction and democracy.
If the US changes the purchase restriction it is unlikely that it will request a concession from Maduro to do so or that Maduro will provide a concession (there is nothing in it for him).
Then you have the 2017 restrictions on new debt which will not change no matter what while Maduro is recognized as the “legitimate” president of Venezuela with effective control over the country.
You mention the article from HispanoPost which in turn mentions three unnamed sources.
In all honesty, I do not see as portrayed an exchange in which Maduro releases on or more US prisoners in exchange for the OFAC letting US investors buy Venezuela and PDVSA bonds... I see no incentives for Maduro.
Furthermore recent local events like the resignation of CNE authorities indicate Maduro is stepping away from democracy and planning on becoming another “Fidel Castro”...
There
As you can appreciate, we say "US government could be in talks" because we have some reports but they are not enough on their own to have certainty. I also personally know that there is a renewed interest in state and PDVSA bonds by funds in London where I work, which indicates there could be something going on behind the scenes.
On the other hand, I do get your point that there are few reasons for Maduro to cozy up to the US now. Instead, he's getting closer to Iran, Russia, et al. However, getting sanctions lifted in exchange for a couple US citizens sounds like a good deal for him.
The article’s title is: Estados Unidos levantaría sanción al trading de los bonos venezolanos a cambio de la liberación de privados de libertad
In English it states that the US would lift “trading” sanctions (not just sanctions). This is very specific and I fail to see how it benefits Maduro. I am keen on hearing your take on the benefits for the regime.
Although it is true that sometimes it's like Maduro is giving up on "rapprochement" with the US, like the article says.
Not being able to trade sanctions in the US (and effectively Europe), means you can't issue new bonds because you will have no buyers. Companies and governments need to issue new bonds all the time, to finance many different projects. Any president, not just Maduro, corrupt or not, populist or not, benefits from being able to issue bonds.
In my view things work differently. We need to distinguish between the 2017 sanctions which had no effect on trading (no new issues with more than 30 & 90s maturities) and 2019 sanctions (US persons cannot buy VENZ & PDVSA bonds).
Even if you lift both of these restrictions Maduro cannot issue any debt (so he gets no benefit) and the private sector cannot in any meaningful manner.
That Venezuela's bonds can be traded, and thus its debt can be restructured, are necessary conditions for new bonds to be issued in the future - though you're right, they're not sufficient.
Now this London service on bonds is also talking about it, and these guys know what they're saying. And so is Reuters. Little by little it's being picked up. The negotiations can fail and there's no lifting of the ban, but it is very likely they are discussing it between Caracas and Washington.
https://rss.com/podcasts/thereddeyelatam/1002227/
I have known Steve (based in NY) for a very long time. His comment refers to a private meeting that took place (about two months ago) with an official from the State Department who said that the US will revisit the prohibition for US Persons to buy VENZ and PDVSA debt as there was no correlation between the restriction and democracy.
If the US changes the purchase restriction it is unlikely that it will request a concession from Maduro to do so or that Maduro will provide a concession (there is nothing in it for him).
Then you have the 2017 restrictions on new debt which will not change no matter what while Maduro is recognized as the “legitimate” president of Venezuela with effective control over the country.
Regards, J